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“There are amounts scattered through different categories for a variety of Federal agencies and discretionary spending by governors,” Simonson says. “They'll decide whether to put money into school reconstruction or other projects. New building construction isn't emphasized, but it's possible that will get some money.”

Simonson says he believes single-family home construction will bounce back by the end of 2009. Multi-family residential construction will be down for two years or longer.

Commercial HVAC an Indirect Beneficiary

About 10% of commercial contractors responding to a ContractingBusiness.com survey anticipate hiring or re-hiring workers because of ARRA.

“The total dollars allocated for construction from ARRA is about $138 billion. Commercial segments, and especially the hospitality segment, will be way down, so that $138 billion will act like a filler. It comprises a 15 to 20% supplement over two years,” says Tony Guzzi, president/CEO of EMCOR Group, Inc., Norwalk, CT

Guzzi thinks the industry will rev up in the third and fourth quarters of 2009. “For the larger infrastructure projects, you're looking at fourth quarter 2009 to first quarter 2010.”

As for the $21 billion for Federal buildings and infrastructure allocated through ARRA, Guzzi thinks those funds will be allotted to small, retrofit project work in traditional commercial sectors, but with a qualification. Contractors will have to be aligned with decision makers on the General Services Administration (GSA) schedule, or know how to work through the Department of Defense and Veterans Administration channels. Perhaps, then, this is an opportunity for Design/Build contractors to try something new. For more information on how to get involved with GSA projects, visit gsa.gov.

Do What You Do Best, and Then Some

Both residential and commercial HVAC contractors must do all they can to ignore economic bad news and continue to charge ahead as if none of this ever happened.

“Only time will improve the situation,” says Adrian “Ed” Blum, service coordinator, Bryan Cox Mechanical, San Diego, CA. “Over the past couple of years, San Diego was hopping. Service is still busy, but construction projects are on hold. There's lots of empty space to be developed,” Blum reports. “Eventually people will buy a car or home; right now, they're afraid to make a move.”

Residential contractors must focus on continued prospecting and increased service agreement sales among existing customers, judicious cost-cutting, and incorporation of new services wherever possible. (See Garry Upton's Comfort FAQ, p. 14.)

For commercial contractors, system retrofits in anticipation of the R-22 refrigerant phaseout provide opportunities, as do increased use of maintenance agreements.

“Don't let the economy be your excuse,” says John Chapin, co-founder of Complete Selling, Inc., and author of The Sales Encyclopedia. “If you decide that something outside of you, such as the economy, is responsible for your success or failure, you give away control of your destiny and your ultimate success,” he says. For Chapin's Seven Tips for Selling in a Tough Economy, visit contractingbusiness.com/feature/selling_in_tough_economy_0422.

There's still a need that goes beyond comfort. Do all you can to promote your services as crucial to good health and increasing the value and sustainability of buildings and homes.

Clicking for Dollars

• ContractingBusiness.com contributor Michael Bohinc, CPA, has provided a rundown of ARRA tax provisions that affect HVAC contractors: contractingbusiness.com/news/stimulus_bill_provisions_HVAC_0421/

• For a listing of provisions provide by the stimulus package that could benefit HVAC contractors, visit contractingbusiness.com/news/stimulus_package_hvac_0423

• Visit AGC.org/stimulus to see how stimulus funds have been allocated.

• State websites now provide recovery web pages that help explain how states are spending funds allocated by ARRA: recovery.gov/?q=content/state-recovery-page

• Federal agencies are submitting weekly reports that contain information on funding, major actions taken so far, and those actions planned for the near-term: recovery.gov/?q=content/agencies

• The Small Business Administration's Recovery Information Center provides information related to activity in various regions of the U.S. sba.gov/recovery/information/REC_ACT_MAJOR_COMM.html

For the full range of state and federal incentives for renewable energy projects, visit dsireusa.org/

• The General Services Administration (GSA) establishes long-term government-wide contracts that allow customers to acquire a vast array of supplies (products) and services directly from commercial suppliers. For information on workings of the GSA, visit gsa.gov.

• For information on how to become eligible for Federal projects, visit recovery.gov.

• Members of the Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) can view a listing of consumer tax credits and other related information by visiting acca.org/govt/